Download The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 4: Solar/Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Cycles, by Raymond A. Merriman
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The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 4: Solar/Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Cycles, by Raymond A. Merriman
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Volume 4 of this 5-volume series on The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing is the most comprehensive analysis yet of all the Sun-Moon combinations and their correspondence to price movements in stock indices available today. It examines 60 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, and the past 16-18 years of daily data on the NASDAQ Composite and Japanese Nikkei stock indices. The probability of 4% or greater reversals is assigned to each Sun-Moon combination, which are usually in effect 1-2 (sometimes 3) trading days per year. In all, there are approximately 30 of these 1-2 day periods that stand out as high probability trade dates each year, in each index. Thus when a Sun-Moon combination with a high correlation to 4% or greater price swings is in effect, a trader knows that this 1-2 day period offers a high probability for an isolated low or high to form, from which the market will reverse a substantial amount in a very short time. This is the ideal situation for short-term traders: high profit probability with a minimal amount of time exposure (risk) in the market.
This book also identifies which Sun-Moon combinations have a much lower than expected correlation to short-term trading reversals, thereby allowing traders the comfort of not feeling pressured to exit (or enter) on certain dates. In addition, each Sun-Mercury and Sun-Venus sign combinations are examined for high and low probability reversal zones, and used along with Sun-Moon combinations to determine the most and least volatile times for trading stock indices. If you are a short-term trader of stock exchange futures, options, or the stock exchange traded indices on the AMEX, like the DIA, SPY, or QQQ, this is a book that can provide an extremely valuable market timing advantage. This is the "edge" that traders seek.
- Sales Rank: #2444630 in Books
- Published on: 2003-01-15
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 11.00" h x 8.75" w x .75" l,
- Binding: Paperback
- 242 pages
Review
A remarkable job isolating high probability time periods to trade. Excellent addition to one's technical short-term trading. -- Walter Bressert Asset Management Company
About the Author
Raymond A. Merriman is a market analyst and editor of the MMA Cycles Report, an advisory market letter issued 17 times per year, and used by financial institutions, investors, and traders throughout the world since 1981. He also edits the SOS Special Stock Market Report, which is issued 8-9 times per year and continually updates the status of long-term cycles in the U.S. stock market, and individual stocks. Mr. Merriman has worked as an Investment Advisor for Prudential Securities
Most helpful customer reviews
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Spend your money on Merriman by buying something else
By Sam Johnson
This book was an enormous disappointment. First off I like Merriman. I came across him reading his weekly update which is enjoyable and sometimes very informative. Since the service is free I thought I would throw some money his way and I picked this book as the vehicle to do so. I forked over $95 a bit outrageous but not in the context in which I wished to spend it. I'm happy to see that Merriman or someone has reduced the price to 77.61. It needs to go lower and even then I'm not sure I would recommend this book. Here's why. With a title that uses the words Solar Lunar correlations I would be looking for an in depth study of cycles relating to the sun and moon phases. The frequency of a peak or crest at various phases and some kind of statistical relevancy. The behaviour of markets around these points and perhaps some follow up as to whether the time of year mattered. I would also have hoped for some study of the metonic and saros cycles, eclipses etc. That would be the minimum for a book that costs $95. Here's what you get. Merriman looks only at 4% moves and their frequency depending on which sign the sun moon and the planets Venus and Mercury are in. He fine tunes it a little to see if there is greater frequency peaks or crests, but what you get are bunch of tables. Now maybe in it's own right this might be an interesting study if he backed it up with a statistical analysis of the significance. In other words what is th elikelyhood that results are merely random anomalies. Unfortunately the statistics are pretty much useless. Even in the case of the Dow which has the largest dataset you just don't have the amount of data to generate any meaningful answers. And in fact it's not surprising that there are no signiture 1 signals whereas there are some for the Nikkei and the Naz (as the greater amount of data is showing that any corellation is reverting to zero). Let me give you an example say you want to see if the Dow is likely to reverse to today. So you check. The Sun is in Taurus and the Moon is Libra and will be for about 2 1/2 days. Will the market reverse. You look it up. Merriman gives it weighting of 100 meaning the statistical probability of a reversal is equal to a chance reversal based on the total data set. But now look at the amount of times an actual reversal occurred with this Sun Moon combo: 7. Now how many data points for a combo that has a high probability: That would be the Sun in Taurus Moon in Cancer: The number of ocurrences is 11. It seems like a big difference but it's statistically meaningless. That could happen randomly when number of occurences is so low. There are a few interesting observations in the book and a methodolgy for trading but without more rigorous statistics it would be hazardous to trade. And of course for those of us interested in shorter moves the book is a complete waste. Why didn't Merriman look at the the 2 or 3 days around the full moon or new moon? Again there would be limited data sets but maybe they signals would have exceed their random possiblity. Anyone who who can make a strong statistical argument that you can use these numbers should sound out. It's not that I want to criticise Merriman as I think he is well intentioned but I question his approach. While I was happy to spend the money I think others should hold off unless the price is signicantly lowered. You would be better of buying Merriman's software and then finetuning what you're looking for. There's not enough commentary or insight to make it worthwhile. But if you want to see an attempt to apply astrology to swing trades and understand the difficulty in doing so then check it out. Ultimately you get what you pay for in life. I assume Merriman wants you topay for his market timing services which is why he hobbles the parameters for this book. Ultimately I wished I had bought Volume 1 of the series which just focuses on longer cycles without the astrology. In any event I will probably buy it just to give him some more money for his efforts. Be careful though because his newer edition is not the one currently listed for sale on Amazon.
9 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Key Short-Term Trading Reversal Dates Pinpointed by Merriman
By L. Masonson
This book is Merriman's fourth book in a series of comprehensive volumes in the Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing series:
Volume I. Cycles and Patterns in Indexes
Volume II. Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles
Volume III. Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles
Volume IV. Solar/Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals
Volume V. Technical Tools and Trading Cycles (not yet completed)
As is the case with his previous volumes II and III, the reader unfamiliar with astrology will have difficulty in understanding the book. Many of the astrological terms are neither clearly defined, nor explained as to their importance. Those readers familiar with astrology will have no such problems. Readers unfamiliar with astrology and the financial markets, should first read Merriman's 60-page basic primer "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing."
Volume IV is a 241-page paperback (8.5" x 11"). Very few researchers and market analysts have the stamina, knowledge, time, and skill to write one ground-breaking book on the markets. Merriman has accomplished that feat four times over, and he is not done yet, with a fifth volume underway.
As I expected, Merriman has produced exhaustive research on the correlation of geocosmic signatures with high and low points in three equities markets. The book's hypothesis is that short-term traders can take advantage of specific reversal dates during the year that can be identified by using specific solar/lunar combinations. Most researchers who have found statistically valid correlations of data to stock prices that can be used for profitable trading, tend to keep it to themselves, and not share it with the public. Merriman has taken the opposite road and shares his years of research with all of us. Therefore, it is incumbent upon us (short-term traders) to give his findings serious consideration. Any edge that we can get in the markets is something that should be examined and put to the test.
Merriman's reviews 60 years of DJIA price data coupled with all the Sun-Moon combinations. He also reviews similar combinations with almost two decades of data for the Nasdaq composite and the Japanese Nikkei index. He focuses on determining the important reversal dates ( one or three day time bands a few times a year) - 4% or more changes in value -- for specific Sun-Moon combinations. Traders can get ready to act on these reversal points with minimal risk. Traders who use the QQQs, SPYs, and DIAs, as well as futures and options can benefit from Merriman's identification of these timeframes.
Merriman found that certain lunar cycles and certain Sun-Moon signs correlate consistently with tradable highs and lows in the financial markets, and identifies them. At the end of the book, Merriman has a chapter devoted to a short-term trading methodology that clearly spells out the 16 steps required to take advantage of the key reversal dates. He covers a few intraday technical indicators with his 16-step methodology, and then shows a detailed example.
In summary, this book is another significant contribution in the area of timing the market -with specific emphasis on using solar/lunar correlations to identify high probability key reversal dates. For those readers with a solid understanding of these subject areas, the usefulness of this book is apparent. For other readers who feel that the material presented is useful, but cannot fully understand it to use it, then consider Merriman's other services that include newsletters, seminars, software, annual forecasts and reports ... In conclusion, Merriman continues to add significant value to short-term trader's ability to profit from identifiable and profitable market situations. Those who take the time to study his work will find a new tool to use.
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